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the Peak of Inflated Expectations and the Trough of Disillusionment

I find this plot by tech analysts Gartner, Inc. to be quite the amusing, especially since I’ve had professional or research encounters with several of these technologies, and I think that yes, folksonomies and social network analysis are about to disillusion a lot of people, and speech translation, augmented reality and prediction markets are all quite likely to get a lot more hype in the near future.

Gartner Hype Cycle 2006-Tm

That said, I wonder about the wisdom of trying to fit the evolution of every technology onto this kind of line. Was Ajax really as hyped as Web 2.0 and I somehow missed it? ‘Cause from my point of view Ajax just popped up one day and made Gmail kinda awesome. And biometric payments? Seriously?

I wonder how this will look in five years? Or two?