For example, toss a coin 10 times. If you get 10 heads, for the next toss you know that

a) if you assume no prior information, the probabily of heads is 0.5

b) if you use that prior information, the coin seems to be biased. So, the probability of heads is higher.

Now, ask a human (excluding staticians) to bet for the next toss. Surprisingly, everyone say tails!!

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